Expanded Summary

The article deals with the energy security problems of the region, what are the potential scenarios of the development of the region with energy resources are shown, also possible options, advantages and disadvantagesof the development of the energy transport corridor of the Caucasus and Georgia exactly are given. Why is it difficult for Turkey, like EU, to find the alternative of Russian gas is also analyzed in the article. 

According to the author, because of the Azerbaijan-Armenian controversy, it is difficult to get electric energy from Armenia in the East part of Turkey which is short of power. Now because of the hard relations of Russia-Turkey, Turkey will not get Russian electric energy with “Caucasus” with Akhaltsikhe-Borchkha line which A. Chubaisi dreamed when he was the Minister of Energy of Russian Federation. In such conditions in the nearest future Georgia cannot be electric energy “Hub” – the role of the specialized distribution center of all direction.

For the last two decades the utilization of electricity of Turkey was sharply boosted. It is basically based on the generation of thermal electric stations working with fossil fuels. Building of three atomic electric stations is planned. Russia’s “Rosatom” has already started to build “Akkuyu” atomic electric station on the Mediterranean coast, near Mersin. 4 Russian ВВЭР-1200 should have been equipped from energy units. Though, because of the recent complicated relations this project is suspended despite the fact that the Russian side had already made large investments there. Also in 2017 the second large atomic project of Japanese-French Consortium and in 2019 building of the third atomic station are plannedto launch.

So, for 2020 when these three nuclear reactors had started functioning Turkey would have become the generation center of the region and Russia would have become the major investor of atomic sector of Mediterranean region. Russia itself has 34 reactors in 10 different regions of the federation. Atomic sector generates 24 thousand MW power. Despite outdated infrastructure of Russia, the government declared a plan of expansion of basic powers. It announced that in 2030 30% of electricity will be received from atomic stations, in 2050 it will rise to 50%.

It is also worth considering that in June, 2015 an agreement of International Energy charter is signed by 75 countries, among them are Georgia, Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan, which outlines prospects for Georgia as a “Hub” on the regional market of electricity. Georgia really has a prospect. Mr. Kaladze points out that “…today Georgia has finished building and rehabilitation of 500 KW transmission lines with Russia and Azerbaijan. Soon building of 500 KW line with Armenia will be finished.” But in the near future Turkey will not be provided with electricity by Armenia and Russia, so Georgia has to generate more to export electricity to this neighbor country. Now for this reason Georgia is implementing serious plans for building the hydroelectric stations. Though, in this case there are lots of ecological problems.

The author concludes that newly discovered gas fields of the Eastern Mediterranean can be the source of supply of Turkey in the future, but unsettled political relations with Greece and Egypt and occupation of the Northern Cyprus will hinder real prospect of gas supply of Ankara from Armenia. But recently, relations with Israel which is rich with gas are going to be normalized. All this will complicate for Turkey to play the role of gas “hub” which will be also reflected negatively on Georgia’s perspective of Caspian gas transition.

he basic pipe of “trunk pipeline” (Diameter 1200mm) near to Gardabani will be connected with SCP which can be a new route of one part of Russian gas which previously was considered for export in the west for “Turkish stream”.  This gas via SCP later with “Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline” and “Trans Adriatic Pipeline” (TAP) will be send from Turkey to Europe. With the other end of 1200mm pipe in the same hub with reverse can be received Iranian gas via gas network of Armenia. This connection will make Russian, Iranian and European projects mutually connected and Georgia can benefit from this as well, particularly:

First of all, Russian, Azerbaijani and Iranian gas streams via Georgia will be boosted this way. Accordingly, the volume of gas left for free and in reduced prices in the country will be increased. This will fill half loaded SCP and “Trunk” pipelines, and transit proceeds of Georgia will be increased and no additionalexpenses from the budget of the country and from Western donors will be needed. Construction of the so-called inter connectors on the junction of pipes will be necessary in Gardabani, village Jandara.

Secondly, energy security of the country will be increased because with the connection with SCP Russia will become more interested in filling “Trunk Pipelines” at most and its proper functioning because this pipe with new route will connect Russia with western export gas pipelines with high performance. Also, the interest to use Georgia as safe transit corridor by west will grow because Georgia will become the regional hub of gas supply.

Thirdly, interconnection of SCP and “Trunk” pipelines will also satisfy interests of Iran and Russia. Director of national company of gas export of Iran declared that Iran is going to threefold increase gas export and increase its share in world gas trade from 2% to 10% for 2016.  The official underlined that Tehran will try to export its gas in Russia (it is unknown which pipe?!) and other neighbor countries.

Thus, in terms of gas supply of Georgia and prospect of diversification of its transit Iran is a country which holds the second place in the world with the large gas reserves and presumably sanctions on Iran will be totally lifted soon.  Iran is currently negotiating with neighbor Armenia on the transition of hydro carbons to EU via this country’s territory.